Experts predict lower prices for mineral fertilizers
There is an ambiguous situation on the global fertilizer market. As reported kurkul.com after reaching the highest levels in November-December 2021, there is a slight decline in prices around the world. Experts predict that there will be a correction before the spring sowing season, but it is difficult to say how deep it is.
The report notes: “Some countries have taken a number of measures to stabilize prices in the domestic market. Thus, the Russian government introduced a temporary ban on the export of ammonium nitrate from February 2 to April 1, 2022 inclusive. According to the agency’s forecasts, the export restriction will provide farmers with the necessary amount of ammonium nitrate during its maximum purchases – from January to March, as well as prevent an increase in prices for this type of fertilizer in conditions of active demand. At the same time, Poland has reduced VAT on fertilizers from 8% to 0% since February 1.”
Sergiy Ruban, marketing director of Ukrainian mineral fertilizers (UMF), notes that these measures will not affect the Ukrainian market, since this VAT is not taken into account in export-import ooperations.
“This may affect the reduction in the price of Polish fertilizers, but poles will not sell cheaper to the Ukrainian market than the world market will allow,” Sergiy Ruban explained.
According to him, such measures should be introduced in Ukraine, but the government is unlikely to do so.Currently, fertilizer prices in Ukraine correspond to world prices and there is a slight decrease.
“Prices are rising from some positions, such as ammonium nitrate. Some fertilizers, on the contrary, are now getting cheaper. In Ukraine, the price of urea sank, due to a decrease in price lists on the world market. At the moment, this is about. 250.regarding other types of fertilizers, the situation is still ambiguous. If ammonium sulfate and KAC do not sink, then ammonia on the world market has risen in price by $100,” the expert explained.
Situational factors continue to affect the market, and given the price dynamics in 2021, this year, Sergiy Ruban emphasizes, two scenarios are possible: speculative growth against the background of large financial injections into the economy and the recovery of market prices and demand after a period of stabilization. Thus, as long as high natural gas prices are maintained, it is impossible to count on a low price of ammonia.
So, according to the expert’s forecasts, prices for mineral fertilizers will adjust by the spring season. How much it will sink and at what level it will remain, no one knows. However, there will definitely be a decline in the price.