As of the end of June, due to seasonal factors, the Food Availability Index (FPI) decreased to 6.5, which is 47.6% lower than the pre-war value, 12% lower than in the first half of June, and 14.9% lower than in May. This means that a person with an average income at the end of June could buy almost 48% less food compared to pre-invasion levels. Such data are provided in Food security and policy review in Ukraine.
The main reason for the decline in GDP is the increase in the average price of the “food basket”. As of the last week of June (June 27-July 1), the price of the basket increased by 17.5% compared to the price of May 23-27. The reason for such a significant increase in prices is seasonal factors. Early vegetables of the new harvest, which are more expensive than last year’s, have started to appear in stores, leading to an increase in prices for onions (+26%), potatoes (+190%), carrots (+29%) and beets (+51%) ) as of June 27-July 1, compared to May 23-27.
Seasonal price growth was exacerbated by the occupation of the Kherson region, which is one of the leaders in vegetable production in Ukraine. In addition, prices continue to rise due to supply chain disruptions, logistics issues and rising input prices.
The greatest increase in the price of a basket in June was observed in Khmelnytskyi and Odesa regions: as of the last week of June (June 27 – July 1), compared to May 23-27, prices increased by 22.6% and 21%, respectively.
As of June 13-17, compared to May 23-27, the prices of buckwheat (+16%), chicken eggs (+27%), cabbage (+21%) and onions (+14%) increased the most. In the same period, the prices of beef (-3%), sour cream and butter (-1%) decreased. As of June 27 – July 1, compared to June 13-17, chicken eggs continued to rise in price (+25%), and flour (-2%), millet (-5%) and beef (-1%) became cheaper.
As of the end of June, compared to May 23-27, the average number of available goods increased the most in Chernihiv (+8.4%), Dnipro (+9.5%) and Rivne (+9.4%). The food supply situation in Bakhmut, a town a few kilometres from the front line, which was dire in May, did not improve during June. As of June 21, the average number of available items in the category decreased by 16.1%, compared to June 23-27. After June 21, information about the availability of food in Bakhmut is not available. The reason for this is the approach of the front line directly to Bakhmut. Ivano-Frankivsk (-11.4%) and Poltava (-12.2%) are two more cities in which there is a significant decrease in the assortment. In other cities, there were no significant changes in June.
As of July 1, compared to May 29, the availability of cabbage increased by 30.5% due to the appearance of a new crop in stores. In addition, the availability of millet (+14.1%) and sugar (+13.2%) increased. On the other hand, the availability of beet decreased significantly (-17.5%) in connection with the occupation of the Kherson region, which is the largest producer of beet in Ukraine. Beef availability, which was relatively low in May, increased by 6%. No significant changes were observed in other product categories.