In the conditions of aggressive and brutal war on the part of Russia, despite the occupation of territories and mining of fields, thanks to the courage of Ukrainian farmers will be provided with grain and will be able to export part of the harvest to the world market. This was reported by Ukrainian grain association.
According to the Association’s forecasts, Ukraine can harvest about 66.5 million tons of grain and oilseeds from an area of about 18.8 million hectares. At the same time, exports from Ukraine in the new season could reach 30 million tons, provided to double the capacity of crossings at the borders of Ukraine. Given the current capacity, Ukraine can count on exports of 12-18 million tons in the 2022/2023 marketing year.
In addition, the transitional balance in 2021/2022 marketing will be about 25 million tons, and in 2022/2023 MY according to optimistic forecasts may increase to 31 million tons, and pessimistic – about 43 million tons.
This year’s wheat harvest in Ukraine can be expected at 19.2 million tons, which is usually significantly lower than last year’s record (33 million tons), but this figure is three times higher than Ukraine consumes wheat per year. At the same time, the transitional stocks of wheat of the last harvest are almost 10 million tons. Exports of wheat in 2022/2023 MY, taking into account the large transitional stocks may amount to about 10 million tons of wheat.
Barley this year can be harvested at 6.6 million tons (in 2021 – 10.1 million tons), and exports in 2022/2023 MY can be expected at 2 million tons. Corn harvest in the new season can be expected at 26.1 million (37.6 million tons last year), while exports could reach about 15 million tons.
Sunflower harvest can be expected at 9 million tons (in 2021 – 16.9 million tons). Rapeseed harvest is projected at 1.5 million tons (2.9 million tons in 2021), while exports of 2022/2023 MY are expected at 1.3 million tons. Soybean harvest is expected at 2.1 million tons (in 2021 – 3.5 million tons), and exports of 2022/2023 MY can be expected at 0.8 million tons.
In total, exports of grain and oilseeds in 2022/2023 can be expected at 30 million tons, if Ukraine in the blockade of Black Sea ports can double the capacity of other logistics routes, including railway crossings on the borders with EU countries. Today, the capacity of alternative routes is not more than 1.5 million tons per month. Ukraine and partner countries, as well as the EU at all levels, are working to increase the capacity of alternative logistics routes by removing all bureaucratic and technical barriers. In order for Ukraine to reach the export rate of 30 million tons, it is necessary to increase the capacity at the EU borders to 3 million tons per month.
Ukraine is guaranteed to have sufficient grain reserves, while the countries of the world will not receive a significant amount of grain from Ukraine due to Russia’s war against Ukraine, which will lead to rising prices and food inflation, even in developed countries. According to the UN, food shortages and high prices could lead to famine in many poor countries, mass protests and riots, and the consequent mass migration of people from Africa and the Middle East to the EU.